Sunday, January 11, 2009

Yeah, still alive ...


I'm still around, just been concentrating on other stuff. This is the time of year that I start thinking about weather again, in anticipation for what's coming this spring. Just a quick pic I took of a friend's pup out in San Diego ... had forgotten about this photo and just came across it this morning.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

QOTD - Amy Poehler

Quote of the day from SNL last night:

NBC Universal purchased The Weather Channel this week for $3.5 bn. NBC's goal was to reach the elusive 'let's keep the TV on for the dog all day' demographic.

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Hurricanes and Fabricating Fear

When it comes to the nation's media machines, one thing is painfully obvious: FEAR SELLS.

I'm under the belief that irrational fear actually generates more problems, however, than the events provoking them in the first place. It is a truth that all of us maintain both rational and irrational fears, and these to an extent dictate our actions.

Think about this ... an irrational fear of snakes may drive a person to panic when seeing a snake in any circumstance. The instant panic provokes a response. The individual runs as hard as they can in the opposite direction and in the process trips on a branch they did not see, strikes their head and is gravely injured. Now ask yourself: Did the snake cause this incident? Would it have been preferable for this person to have cultivated a fear of tree branches rather than snakes?

The fact is that it wasn't the snake that caused the accident ... the snake just happened to be there. The accident can actually be attributed to irrational fear. And that fear was fed and nurtured over time ... most likely, by accumulating mis-information. An appropriate and measured response to seeing a snake may have been to simply turn and walk away. Or to stand completely still. These responses are fed by knowledge and understanding, rather than fear. But to get such a response, we need to prepare ourselves for the fact that if we are walking outside, from time to time we will come upon a snake. It is a fact of the world in which we live.

It's interesting that I once watched a program in which a man (who loved snakes, by the way), climbed a tree so that he could catch and hold an African Black Mamba. For those of you who do not know, this is considered the single most venomous creature on the planet. When he caught the snake and started to climb down the tree, he said something I thought was interesting: 'I want to be careful as I climb down, not because I'm afraid of getting bitten, but because I'm afraid the snake might somehow accidentally bite itself.' That got me to thinking ... what keeps a snake from biting itself and suffering from the effects of a toxin its own body produces? It is not afraid of itself. It is not an irrational creature, but rather lives by instinct. And part of that instinct must include a respect for its own power based on the knowledge of what it is capable of.

We have this built-in natural fear as well. It is the respect for our own power that keeps us from doing stupid things ... taking unnecessary chances ... and putting our lives at impossible risk. Don't believe me? Go lay in your driveway and ask someone to run you over with your car. Hey ... maybe you'll survive just fine. That's a risk you'll have to determine your willingness to take. We feed this inborn respect over time as we grow and mature and learn the things we can do and the things that will risk getting us hurt.

Okay, so it's time to look at some statistics. Here are some average numbers of fatalities caused by various things in the United States each year:

Deaths from drunk driving = 17,000
Deaths from cancer = 547,000
Deaths from gunshots = 30,000
Pedestrians struck by cars = 5000
Lightning strikes = 73
Plane crashes = 120
Hurricanes = 75

Now, going strictly by the numbers, it would be much more rational for me to feed a fear of drunk drivers (or driving in general) rather than a hurricane. In fact, you are more likely to die fleeing ahead of a hurricane than from the hurricane itself. Don't believe me? Check your numbers.

So what people need when it comes to the way they decide to face of the natural forces of this planet is not an irrational fear ... what they need is to build a healthy respect. People do not typically respond well to attempts at scaring them into action. This is feeding irrationality. Actually, give people some credit. They are smarter than that. Why is it that people respond to strong warnings so negatively oftentimes? Why do they fly in the face of logic and remain determined to ride out a storm on the beach rather than simply drive 30 miles inland?

For many, it is because of experience. Most of them have experienced a hurricane before in some form or fashion. They've seen the news, they've heard the reports, they've witnessed the damage firsthand. But when the next storm comes, they still don't budge. They are willing to take the gamble that they'll live to tell about it. They rationalize their fears based on that experience. You can beg them. You can plead with them. You can show them the people who have died in the big hits. But none of that matters. Why? Because you are attempting to create irrational fear in someone who feels they know better than you.

So what is the solution? I'm not exactly sure. How do you persuade someone to take action they may not otherwise be inclined to take? How do you help someone to see that just because the last storm did not kill them, it does not mean the result will be the same this time? My guess is that the answer lies in society in general and creating a culture that responds pro-actively to threats. But as we think about the things standing between us and arriving at that point ... one of the first big obstacles is the profit created by an enormous and catastrophy-hungry media.

Panic

Definition:
a sudden overwhelming fear, with or without cause, that produces hysterical or irrational behavior, and that often spreads quickly through a group of persons or animals.
We live in a panic culture. There are rational fears, there are irrational fears ... and then there is the way that we react to fear.

The media is currently shaping attitudes and encouraging a panic mentality by the way the "news" is reported. Put the right slant on things and you can force millions of people into a knee-jerk panicked state of mind.

Such is the case with hurricanes. By using language like "certain death" in warning language, the media are then given license to exploit and create a near panic environment. What did we see with gas prices across the country yesterday? A uniform jump. Long lines at pumps. Why?

Because speculators were encouraged to panic about the situation in the Gulf with Hurricane Ike. They were goaded into it, like a million cattle being forced into the chutes. The reality is that the oil rigs in the Gulf are built to withstand a Cat 2 hurricane pretty easily. There of course will be some damage, but hey ... hurricanes are factored into the system, right? Even if there was catastrophic damage to the U.S. oil supply in the Gulf, who cares? The U.S. imports 70% of its crude. I think we'll manage to get through the weekend on what we've got. But no. We should all panic instead. Horde gas. Force price escalation through more speculation. Yes, that makes perfect sense.

And then there are the lives. Any time extremely forceful language is used in weather, it is a gamble. It's a gamble because the storm may or may not turn out as expected. And then next time another storm comes through, people may or may not believe you when you issue a warning.

What we need to do is spend our time looking at the constructive ways to prepare for and protect ourselves from the weather. We need to create a culture of positivity ... pro-action. How can that be done with a media environment bent on death and destruction?

In the United States of America, we love to P-A-N-I-C.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Hurricane Ike Update

Ike has some work to do if it plans on getting its act together. Satellite imagery this morning shows ragged, non-descript structure, and the eye is non-present. The interesting thing is the effect Ike is having on wave activity in the Gulf, pushing large swells over the sea walls in Galveston, even though the storm is still a good 12-15 hours away from making landfall. Galveston will likely get swamped by this storm. But unless the hurricane can do some serious cycling during the afternoon today, Ike does not look like a super healthy wind machine to me.

And by the way - the whole "certain death" quote blasted all over CNN, MSNBC, etc. was old the first time I read it. If it's that bad, they need to go ahead and issue a "certain death" warning or something, I guess.

Update - for the best shots of hurricanes from space that I ever remember seeing, pay a visit here. You won't regret it. Thanks to Mike H for the heads up.



Compare this vis sat to the one day before yesterday posted below. Looks like Ike has gone through a significant weakening cycle. It would need to reorganize itself in order to strengthen significantly prior to landfall.
Meanwhile, closer to home, Kansas City is experiencing a heavy rain event. Lots of flood warnings out, particularly on the south side. The drive was rough and everyone was drenched this morning.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Latest Ike Photo

Cool view of the storm today. Ike remains a perfectly-shaped hurricane.


Wednesday, September 10, 2008

I Like Ike


The latest satellite image. Perfect, pretty little spirals.


Friday, September 05, 2008

New Headline

I came across this story on the KC Crime Blog and the picture just begged for me to add my own caption.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Scott's 5/29/08 Video

Tornadovideos.net posted Scott's footage from our chase on May 29th. What an unbelievable storm. Beautiful!

KC Plaza Photo Walk

Went on my first photo walk last Saturday. Over 50 photogs showed up and took some great images. Here are a few of mine. Definitely going to do that again, as it forces me to see things differently than when I'm just walking around on my own. And I love all the different perspectives you end up with from different people. (Click for full photo.)

Kansas City Cowboys

Brush Creek Path HDR

Gazing

220

Flora and fauna of the Plaza

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Blog Status


Going into hibermode for a while as multiple projects are now consuming my attention. I'll still post periodically if something interesting catches my attention. Feel free to check back every now and then ...

Enjoy what's left of a wonderful, cool summer and fall.

Saturday, August 16, 2008

Tornado and Severe Weather in Poland

Video taken of what appears to be a significant tornado this week in Poland. Violent storms there killed three people.